Eureka Crime Out of Control?
On a related note to my last post, it may seem crime is skyrocketing to some. Even I feel that way sometimes but I wonder if it's because that's all we seem to read about in the news. Maybe it's more visible and we hear about it more because there's nothing much else going on around Eureka?
An interesting comment to Allan Dollison's column regarding, I believe, this Lost Coast Outpost story:
Eurekan (Guest):
"Not many people are discussing the dubious analysis by Sims.
Making "per capita" comparisons with the State (millions) and national (many more millions) data is very deceiving. Notice that the state and national graphs are very steady because of the large numbers involved. In a small population a few crimes can make the graphs go rapidly up or down. Violent crime in Eureka was worse in 2007 and property crime was worse in 2004, but Sims compares these to a normalized state and national average to make the graphs to up higher for 2013. A simple check on the analysis is to see how widely the local graphs change -- this is a consequence of the "per capita" comparisons. The numbers are bumped up so a comparison per 100,000 can be made. By analogy, two crimes in a c ommunity of 200 would have to be bumped up to 1000 crimes per 100,000 to make the comparison. That certainly sounds much worse than the two crimes in the community of 200.
Making "per capita" comparisons with the State (millions) and national (many more millions) data is very deceiving. Notice that the state and national graphs are very steady because of the large numbers involved. In a small population a few crimes can make the graphs go rapidly up or down. Violent crime in Eureka was worse in 2007 and property crime was worse in 2004, but Sims compares these to a normalized state and national average to make the graphs to up higher for 2013. A simple check on the analysis is to see how widely the local graphs change -- this is a consequence of the "per capita" comparisons. The numbers are bumped up so a comparison per 100,000 can be made. By analogy, two crimes in a c ommunity of 200 would have to be bumped up to 1000 crimes per 100,000 to make the comparison. That certainly sounds much worse than the two crimes in the community of 200.
This is not to say that crime is not a problem.
What I get from the graphs is that local crime is about the same (some bad years and some better years by a few numbers). Things are not steadily improving, but they are also not "through the roof" or "rising like a rocket" compared to the numbers averaged over the last decade or so."
There certainly are problems with crime in Eureka and the county, but maybe it's not as bad as we're being led to believe?
posted by Fred Mangels @ 9:51 AM
5 comments
5 Comments:
You cant really be that nieve can you. How many violent crimes in just the last month? I can recount a few shootings. property crime is off the charts and only 2% are reported on. EPD does not release the 5 or 10 house burgalries a day in eureka. You would have to be blind not to admit the crime is way skyrocketing and it has not one thing to do with weed. it is the meth. but until people get off the pot hater asses and really tackle the meth problem then it will only get worse. Just like the sheriff. everyone votes for tax to keep county safe with more officers and all they do is pay the same cops more. What a bunch of suckers voting to continue tax. out of control government and free handout is quite rapidly killing America and the county
I'm almost starting to feel guilty that I haven't been burgled, robbed or assaulted.
WOW annoymous no wonder you left your comment as anonymous. Wouldn't want to have to be responsible for your off base critical comments.
EPD issued a news release recently when residential burglaries (daytime) were rising.
Do you think they have time to write a news release every time a house is burglarized? You really have no clue how police departments run.
The Measure Q will allow them to hire (and keep)a few new officers (I think three in the last month).
Why not be part of the solution instead of part of the anonymous complainers.
Join a Neighborhood Watch, volunteer, keep an eye out for your neighbor, GET INVOLVED.
Must be easier to just sit in your chair and criticize.
"I'm almost starting to feel guilty that I haven't been burgled, robbed or assaulted."
I might be able to count the number of times I've been criminalized up here on one hand, and that's over 40 years. Never anything violent that I can recall.
I was burglarized back around 1975ish. A shotgun and rifle stolen from my apartment, but I was living on the west side back then so I suppose that should be no surprise.
In the over 20 years we've lived in this house, I've had my wallet stolen from a bag in my truck while I was at work. Was parked next to Cooper Gulch. Some say that should be no surprise, but I suspect a tenant at the place I was working at.
Had a T- shirt, believe it or not, stolen from the clothesline in our back yard. I believe our cars were broken into 2 or 3 times when we used to park on the south side of the house so started parking the cars on E street.
Had some of the windows in my truck smashed out twice over a period of a year or two. That was over 10 years ago.
Most recent was someone came into our back yard one night a year or so ago and took a plastic garbage can full of aluminum cans.
Ok, maybe more than can be counted on one hand, but spread out over 40+ years I figure that's not too bad. More than you'd want, but not that bad you could almost consider most of it petty stuff. Still pisses you off.
Okay. Maybe I could count the crimes on two hands? Just remembered a couple things:
Over ten years ago had a hedge trimmer stolen from the back of my truck while working. It happened parked in an alley directly across from Jefferson School.
I also had a string trimmer taken from the back of my truck two or three years ago. Truck was parked right out in front of my house around noon when it happened. Funny thing was, they took two string trimmers and I wanted one to be taken.
I had an old trimmer that wasn't working reliably so put it next to my driveway hoping someone would "steal" it. Easy way of disposal, I hoped. Sat there for at least a couple weeks.
I came home for lunch one day. Trimmer still siting on side of driveway. Came out an hour or so later and that trimmer was gone. Then I noticed they'd also taken the good one in the back of my truck. Right in the middle of the noon lunch hour with all kinds of cars driving by.
Had another "theft" occur years before that. A brother-in-law dumped an old, worthless lawnmower on me because he didn't want to hassle getting rid of it. I ended up setting it out on my driveway in the distant hope someone would steal it. It sat there for at least a month.
Had a job hauling a bunch of trash about then. When I'd loaded up my truck it struck me that, since I was going to the dump anyway, I could throw in that old mower and take it to the dump, too.
Drove my house to pick it up and it was gone, although I'm sure it was there when I'd left. What a coincidence in timing.
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