Sunday, November 20, 2016

Richard Rider: IRV Would Have Given Trump a Majority

Past Libertarian Party gubernatorial candidate, Richard Rider, looks back at the election and compares the results versus how it might have worked had we had Instant Runoff Voting, also known as Ranked Choice Voting. For those unfamiliar with IRV, it's where you vote by ranking candidates in order of preference. It's used in some Bay Area cities for municipal elections. Rider thinks, had we used IRV in the recent presidential election, Donald Trump would have won a majority of the vote rather than a plurality:

"Looking at the votes for the Libertarian and Green candidates (the LP candidate got over double the Green/Socialist candidate's vote), it's apparent that under ranked voting, Trump would have won with a majority of the votes, as he would have been a more likely second choice than Hillary."

I'm somewhat surprised at that idea, thinking at first it must be another libertarian fantasy dream of the power of the libertarian vote. It actually doesn't have anything to do with that. As he points out, it has more to do with who would have been most people's second choice, and he may be right.

I've often said (mostly in libertarian circles) that Republicans would generally choose a Democrat over a Libertarian if they had to make that choice. I suspect the reverse might be true with Democrats, most of them wanting to vote as close as possible to maintaining the status quo.

In normal elections I'd say that's the way it would work, but this time we had two candidates who were generally very strongly disliked- Trump and Clinton. Whether so many Democrats would make Trump their second choice despite their hatred for him, I'm not sure. If the situation were reversed, and we'd used IRV, would most Republicans had chosen the highly disliked Clinton over the LP candidate? I have no idea.


At 8:34 AM, Blogger Henchman Of Justice said...

Not a surprise to HOJ who has been paying attention to the Scammer Clinton family since their involvements in Arkansas murders as Bill was paying for prostitutes......after first take reviews and airing on tv in early 1990's, progressive and liberal media have hidden the evidence for over 20 years now Fred......

At 9:39 AM, Anonymous Accomplice of Authority said...

This is not a surprise to a of a. We have all known of Donald trumps rape case against his wife as well as the 13-year-old he raped at the party of the billionaire pedophile in New York City. The facts have been there from the divorce proceedings and the trial of the rape case. The conservative media has choosen to ignore this, instead they like to scare us and force deep divisions that scar and take time to heal and fix. These are deeply immoral people that need a hug and love to reassure them that it is ok to live in a diverse country. We are all immigrants.

At 10:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Funny isn't it how most of the Dems hated Hillary until Sanders sold out. Now suddenly she's the goddess from mars.


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