Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Drought, Or Not?

A week or so ago some guy wrote a letter to the editor of the Santa Rosa Press- Democrat suggesting dire predictions of a serious drought in the state might be wrong. He pointed to the Old Farmer's Almanac, which some have said is a better predictor of long range weather than more conventional sources. 

He claimed the Farmer's Almanac forecast a very wet winter for our area, especially in January and February, if memory serves me correct. That was a relief to hear as I'd heard the Old Farmer's Almanac was surprisingly accurate in long range predictions. Yesterday I checked to see if what he wrote was really true. I'm not sure where he got his information.

Taking a look at Eureka's 2014 forecast, it looks like the Almanac is mostly wrong:

"Winter will be much snowier than normal, with frequent snows from mid-December through the first three weeks of January. Rainfall will be near normal, with temperatures below normal, on average, in the north and above in the south. The coldest periods will occur in mid- to late December, early to mid-January, and mid- to late January."

It seems to be right about below normal temperatures, except it says above normal in the south. It looks like Eureka is in the south of the area being forecast for. We have had some record strings of frosty nights, according to the local news, but daytime temperatures haven't been too bad. The rest is totally wrong. Our rainfall is currently well below normal and we've had little snow.

I don't know where the guy came up with the prediction of heavy rain in January and February. I don't see that mentioned. Maybe that's in the hard copy of the book? I do see you can buy the long range forecast from the web site for $4.95. Maybe that's where he found it?

Either way, looks like they already got the rainfall and snow predictions wrong for our area. I won't buy the possibly more detailed forecast. I'll just be hopeful he's right and we do get a bunch of rain over the next few months. I certainly won't count on it based on their prediction to date.


At 7:59 AM, Anonymous lj said...

Scott Greacen had an excellent show on the drought on his Environment Show on KMUD I believe last Tuesday at 7 pm. It's the second half - the first is about the Holverson quarry which may also be of interest.


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