Saturday, October 21, 2006

Times- Standard Picks LeVallee

In their first of this upcoming election's candidate endorsements, the Times- Standard editorial staff picks incumbent, Peter LeVallee, as their choice for Mayor of Eureka. Nothing really meant against LeVallee, but I'd hardly say his perfomance as Mayor "shines", as the Times- Standard suggests.

Other than that I won't take issue with their explanation of their endorsement. At least they didn't endorse him because he's cool and surfs as they did with one candidate last election.

No kind words for Jerry Droz in their endorsement, either. I suppose that was to be expected.

Next will be the Eureka City Council endorsements. Any guesses as to who they'll pick?

65 Comments:

At 9:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It was the lame reasoning that got me but maybe I expected something new with Winkler gone.

 
At 9:57 AM, Anonymous mresquan said...

incumbants all around in Eureka,the city is moving in the right direction,why stop that,blah,blah,blah,including the board of supes race. For Arcata they'll give it to Wheetley and Stillman(the only non-incumbant they'll endorse).

 
At 10:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lame reasoning is right!

 
At 10:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

They didn't pick Bass? It must be some secret conspiracy against Barbara Shults!

 
At 10:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Times Standard has an 'Editorial Board'. Winkler was just the editor.

Can we file a writ Eric where is Eric when you need an attorney? Can we make them publish the names of the players on the Editorial Board?

 
At 11:02 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh please. The T-S didn't endorse Gags because he's cool and he surfs. Talk abou taking stuff out of context. Try to be fair and balanced.

 
At 11:19 AM, Blogger Fred said...

That's the way I read it. I forget their entire reasoning for endorsing Gallegos, but the fact that younger people liked him and he surfed was the strongest, or at least the closest to being a valid reason, for their endorsement.

Again, just the way I read it.

Not really pointing a finger here, as I've been known to vote for some pretty frivolous reasons myself.

 
At 11:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What did you expect? Bass is supported by Arkley, Arkley is the T/S's competition. Kind of like basic math, 2 + 2 = 4.

But what's the big deal really, what makes you think the staff of the T/S is better than, more informened than, or more enlightened than you or your next door neighbor?? The T/S opinion really doesn't matter.

My opinion, Bass is the hands down best choice for mayor of Eureka.

 
At 12:05 PM, Blogger Hank Sims said...

Any guesses as to who they'll pick?

Glass, Kuhnel and Jones.

 
At 12:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wofford, Kuhnel and Jones.

 
At 12:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 11:25 - Show me where in the Bass 460 is an Arkley contribution. None of the papers who reported on the filings mentioned it. Unlike the "Slate" supported by Bill Pierson who has provided from 22% to 59% of their total contributions. Talk about "bought" camdidates.

 
At 2:09 PM, Blogger Hank Sims said...

12:43 -- Unlikely. Here are the true odds, calculated by the Times-Standard Endorsomatic Crystal Ball.

18.12% : ('Glass', 'Kuhnel', 'Jones')
17.66% : ('Glass', 'Leonard', 'Abrams')
17.14% : ('Wolford', 'Kuhnel', 'Abrams')
10.59% : ('Glass', 'Leonard', 'Jones')
10.28% : ('Wolford', 'Kuhnel', 'Jones')
10.01% : ('Wolford', 'Leonard', 'Abrams')
9.06% : ('Glass', 'Kuhnel', 'Abrams')
6.67% : ('Wolford', 'Leonard', 'Jones')
0.12% : ('Wilburn', 'Kuhnel', 'Jones')
0.12% : ('Wilburn', 'Kuhnel', 'Abrams')
0.11% : ('Wilburn', 'Leonard', 'Jones')
0.11% : ('Wilburn', 'Leonard', 'Abrams')


In the spirit of Dave Berman's push for open-source voting equipment, the full Python source code for the Times-Standard Endorsomatic Crystal Ball is appended below. You may want to increase the size of your pop-up window.

^^^^^^^

raw_combos = []
ranked_combos = []

first = (('Glass', .54, 'endorsed_by_local_solutions'), ('Wilburn', .00000000001, ''), ('Wolford', .45555555559, ''))
third = (('Kuhnel', .52, 'endorsed_by_local_solutions'), ('Leonard', .48, ''))
fifth = (('Abrams', .5, 'endorsed_by_local_solutions'), ('Jones', .5, ''))

for candidate1 in first:
for candidate3 in third:
for candidate5 in fifth:
raw_combos.append((candidate1, candidate3, candidate5))

for combo in raw_combos:
likelihood = (combo[0][1] + combo[1][1] + combo[2][1])

anti_marina_center_count = 0
for candidate in combo:
if candidate[2] == 'endorsed_by_local_solutions':
anti_marina_center_count += 1

if anti_marina_center_count == 2:
ts_comfort_factor = 10
elif anti_marina_center_count == 1:
ts_comfort_factor = 6
elif anti_marina_center_count == 3:
ts_comfort_factor = 5
elif anti_marina_center_count == 0:
ts_comfort_factor = 4

if combo[0][0] == 'Wilburn':
ts_comfort_factor = 0.1

likelihood = likelihood * ts_comfort_factor
ranked_combos.append((likelihood, (combo[0][0], combo[1][0], combo[2][0])))

ranked_combos.sort(cmp)
ranked_combos.reverse()

total = 0

for combo in ranked_combos:
total += combo[0]

for combo in ranked_combos:
print str(round(((combo[0]/total)*100),2)) + '%' + ' : ' + str(combo[1])

 
At 2:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bass 56%, Wolford 52%, Leonard 51%, Jones 63%

 
At 2:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I need another number to play the lottery-3 is always the mega number!

 
At 2:52 PM, Blogger Steve Lewis said...

Attention, please. Humboldt's renown community prophet at large has remodeled his blog site. For all Steve Lewis blog site fans, and we know there are millions of you out there, please go to http://steve-lewis.blogspot.com/ and bookmark the internet address.

 
At 3:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hank 12:43 - You really have too much time on your hands. We need to start a book on the races.

 
At 3:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

T-S will surely pick all the incumbants.

 
At 4:14 PM, Blogger Hank Sims said...

How can you say that when it has been scientifically proven that there's only a 6.67% chance of it happening?

 
At 8:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fred, it was nice reading another regular guy thinks Bass should be mayor and Peter LaVallee isn't much to get excited about.

Now if Cherie Arkley were running today it would be a shut out since my bets are on Marina Center to win.

But as I've stated before Virginia Bass is a classy lady and she has a good head on her shoulders which is more than I can say about the 'fellas' running.

 
At 8:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As for city council the only wild card is Kuhnel-the incumbants have it locked up.
(8:05 continued)

 
At 8:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I spoke with someone who has his ear pretty close to the ground, and he's hearing that Salzman has a nasty little October surprise for Bass & Neely. Hope to heavens it backfires on him...

 
At 8:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

But Salzman is working for Neely.

 
At 8:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

and October is almost over. but you should expect some last week or so hijinks with Mr. Richard. The guy is slimey.

 
At 3:49 AM, Blogger Nick Bravo said...

My money is on Bass and Neely.

 
At 7:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Doesn't have much of an ear, Salzman is working for Neely's campaign.

 
At 8:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

8:25...I had a major brain cramp last night...(I am 8:18) Imeant Bass and Flemming...lol

I am aware, of course that Salzman & Kerrigan are both involved in a number of races, just had a saturday night brain freeze. I dont think Chris would stoop to Salzmanesque levels though (I hope)...

 
At 8:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

703, my ear is fine, its my mind that seems to have the problem, transferring my thoughts to my fingers typing away...lol

 
At 9:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

At least La Vallee admits to paying Salzman directly, not funneling the money through Kerrigan like the other "slate" members.

 
At 10:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And admitting to paying Sleezeman directly is a good thing?

 
At 12:25 PM, Anonymous mresquan said...

So who's forking the bill for those Humboldt Business Council ads? How come no screaming about that?

 
At 2:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Humboldt Business Council members?

 
At 2:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did the Times Standard do their questions on auto? There is no way sane and sober people can pick Peter LaValle as our next mayor!

Virginia Bass had that debate nailed. She has a handle on the issues, represents all Eurekans by studying the issues before she has her mind fixated ie Peter. Virginia is a worker, employer, for living wage jobs.

Bass is in complete contrast to Peter LaVallee's 'Bedroom Community' idea: House the poor, rake in the bucks from grants and state Welfare, don't worry, be happy!

 
At 2:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How can Virginia say that she will represent everyone when she feels that gays and lesbians aren't qualified to receive the same rights and priviledges as heteros? Does the city really need a bigoted mayor?

 
At 3:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

247, Virginia doesnt havve a bigoted bone in her body...didnt you watch the debate. It is NOT the City Council's job to debate state and federal issues.

 
At 3:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I watched the debate, and I also watched her commercial where she hugs her son before sending him to war, a federal issue argued by the anti Meservites. So I guess she can exploit and endorse a federal issue when she wants if it will fit into her bases' priorities.

 
At 4:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

you're just stupid, 3:28

 
At 4:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 3:28 - A mother loves her son. Since when is that a crime?

 
At 4:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

328, do you see her pontificating on the "rightness" or "wrongness" of the war at city council meetings?? I thought not...

I found it interesting at one of the recent Council debates (not mayoral candidates were included, if memory serves me correctly) where a question regarding illegal immigration came up.
ALL candidates stated that it wasnt a city issue, it was, rather, a state/federal issue. Yet when the question of gay marriage came up, only Jones/Leonard/Wilburn/Wohlford showed CONSISTANCY by saying that it too was a State/Federal issue, while Abrahms, and Glass (dont remember what Kuhnel said) showed their INCONSISTANCY by supporting it and saying they would support it at the council level.
(even though theres nothing a council can do aside from passing meaningless resolutions).

 
At 4:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

328 says "a federal issue argued by the antimeservites"

Wrong, wrong and wrong. The issue was brought to Arcata City Council by Dave Meserve, and most who argued against the resolution were those who said that while they were against the war, the City of Arcata had no business interjecting itself into a federal issue.

 
At 6:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dave Meserve is a fool.

 
At 6:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well said 6:06. And if that pollster guy in the Arcata Eye is right, alot of people agree with you.

 
At 7:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Any person who thinks state and federal issues at a city council meeting are appropriate should move to Arcata.

We have enough issues of our own to stock up several city council meetings in advance-but do we want to deal with them? Hah!

Lets face facts, pass measures that keep city staffing at safe levels because the county isn't going to be there and bail us out and we are rural (invisible to the naked eye).

Keep your eye in the problems and dont fall for the distractions-its all garbage and it deflects from what you are supposed to be looking at. Look!! Its an October surprise!!

I'm with 4:55

 
At 7:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NO TO ALL OLD COUNCIL MEMBERS > THEY ARE BEING PAID TO BRING IN MORE AND MOE SHELTERS > CHECK OUT R.C.A.A. OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY > DON'T BE FOOLED !
WE NEED A REGIME CHANGE .

 
At 9:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 7:43 - Damn it, Jerry. Using caps makes no difference at all.

 
At 11:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NICE TRY , PETER LAVALLEE ..........
TRYING TO GET BACK ON , DROZ FOR GETTING THE WORD OUT ABOUT YOU AND THE TIMES - STANDARD ?

 
At 12:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Doen't anyone care that R.C.A.A is part of a National structure of Action Agencies which are Federally mandated enities whose mission is to "legislate for the disabled". These "Clients" are Peter's main focus, and not bringing in jobs for folks that would actually like to work for a living.

 
At 12:01 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Doen't anyone care that R.C.A.A is part of a National structure of Action Agencies which are Federally mandated enities whose mission is to "legislate for the disabled". These "Clients" are Peter's main focus, and not bringing in jobs for folks that would actually like to work for a living.

 
At 5:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

These 'clients' are turning Eureka into a Bedroom Community-except WHERE are the jobs we commute to? Crescent City? Santa Rosa? Oh that's right-Arcata has the manufacturing jobs (thanx Hank!)

Did you forget to mention that Arcata has the zoning for it and filled in low lying areas before the Coastal Commission was there to stop anybody?

 
At 7:55 PM, Blogger Hank Sims said...

No thanks necessary, ma'am. It's my job.

I didn't forget to mention that Arcata has the zoning for it, I just didn't have the space for that part of the story. Though I did allude to it in the "scrungy hippie" passage.

 
At 10:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lavallee and the times - standard hmmmmmmmmmmmm something fishy is going on .

 
At 8:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The City of Eureka has some heavy lifting to do right now and it isn't going to wait until after the election.

We don't have the time or patience for trainees-my suggestion?

Keep the present city council, appoint Ron Kuhnel to Virginia's vacant seat. Its a compromise-and if he turns into some kind of Trojan horse we don't have to reelect him.

 
At 11:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This bullshit about the council needing experience is a lame argument. They have had their chance and have shown no interest in what they are doing. I would rather have an ambitous newby than a proven slacker.

 
At 11:30 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As far as the 4th District Supervisor Race-I heartily agree proven slacker Neely vs ambitious newbie Nancy Flemming! I'll take ambitious newbie Flemming thank you! Read her plan:
http://www.nancyflemming4supervisor.com/

 
At 11:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Larry Glass, Nan Abrams: No I can't comment on that issue I haven't studied it yet.

Does Larry Glass know how much of the city budget goes into public safety?
NO
Does Nan?
NO

Do the incumbants have difficult decisions to make on who they will appoint to the public Safety Commission?
YES

We don't need trainees in the seats. We need informed, reasoning not campaign rhetoric without substance.

 
At 1:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Droz knows !

 
At 2:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Do the incumbants have difficult decisions to make on who they will appoint to the public Safety Commission?"

Of course not. They will pack it with their cronies.

 
At 9:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

2:23 That is not actually possible. Commissions are appointed by the Mayor and approved by the council.

Would that be Your cronies?

 
At 1:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I believe in this case the Council made the recommendations.

 
At 10:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

1:22 Ad Hoc (Volunteer) Committees are appointed differently than Commissions.

 
At 11:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is there a public safety committee now?

 
At 1:00 PM, Blogger mrsb814 said...

I can answer that since I was nominated by Jeff Leonard to participate on the ad hoc committee...No.

We have completed our task of designing the Public Safety Commission and one will be appointed by the Mayor and approved by the city council.

I am understanding this will happen sooner rather than later in view of recent events. We should be hearing more at the special City Council meeting on Monday.

 
At 5:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What is an ad hoc committee? And what is designing a Public Safety Commission? Does that include police review?

 
At 9:15 PM, Blogger mrsb814 said...

Ad hoc simply means-"volunteer".

The Public Safety 'Committee' which was appointed by the City Council from each of the wards, was tasked with designing the Public Safety Commission. The people that were appointed I would say-were a diverse group but worked well together. We each had our own opinions coming into it but because we came from such different backgrounds, it worked.

We had a Mission Statement that was so good I am busting to tell you what it said, however it is the city council's job. And it is the mayor's job now to appoint a Commission and the council's job to approve these appointments...so the citizens of Eureka will have another place to bring in issues that effect public safety.

The two council members at a Neighborhood Watch Forum last night assured me this will come up at the special city council meeting Monday.

If you are unsure of anything- please do not hesitate to ask questions at this special council session-that is what its for.

 
At 5:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

When you say it was a diverse group... were the poor represented?

 
At 5:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And was a police review discussed?

 

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