It's Over
Well...almost. Looks like we'll have to wait a while to see who wins the contest for Eureka Mayor. The Times- Standard seems to suggest Bass is already the winner with the Eureka Reporter saying it's too close to call.
Seems to be the same with the Neely- Flemming race, with the T-S giving the win already to Neely.
One thing's for sure; With the close votes in all the Eureka races, Eureka is a sharply divided community. Of course, there's still no way of saying what people are divided on. Some people might well have voted for one candidate or another simply because they got to shake one candidate's hand.
As an aside, one good thing about close vote counts like this is the winners certainly can't claim any sort of mandate. If it's one thing that raises the hair on this libertarian's head, it's when I hear any politician say he's got a mandate.
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Oh, and time to take all the yard signs down folks. I actually blew it and took mine down this morning. I usually take them down as soon as the polls close, but I fell asleep on the couch and never got around to it. Let's get those signs down.
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One thing frustrating about being a third party voter is getting quick election results. Most media tend to ignore third party election results, some not reporting them at all.
Not that it really matters, as we know we're not going to win anyway. But, unlike major parties, third parties can lose status as a state recognized party if they don't get high enough vote counts in statewide races and they don't have enough registered voters in their party.
I can never get this down right but a party has to get something like 2% of the total votes cast in at least one statewide race to maintain ballot status.
The Peace and Freedom Party lost their status a few years ago by a low vote count, then regained it the next election, but that was due mostly because of low voter turnout thus making the overall vote count lower.
I just checked the Secretary of State web site and it looks like they made it again this year with their State Controller and Insurance Commissioner candidates getting over 2%.
The Libertarian Party seems to have made it again, too, with a few candidates getting 2% or more of the vote. State Treasurer candidate, Marion Smithson, got 4%(!). Go figure.
She was one of a few of our candidates that had no campaign web site and didn't campaign, at least not enough to speak of, although she did have some sketchy information on the League of Women Voter's Smartvoter web site.
I was actually considering not voting for any Libertarian candidates that didn't even at least have a rudimentary campaign web site. I'm getting a little tired of paper candidates. In the end I ended up voting straight Libertarian in all the state wide races, with the exception of voting McClintock for Lt. Governor.
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Tom Reed, LP canidate for State Assembly, got over 4% of the vote. That's about what's to be expected up here, in a three way race. If there'd been another candidate he'd likely have gotten half of what he got, at least that's the way it usually works.
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A couple pleasant surprises in the propositions, with the tobacco and oil taxes going down in flames. On the downside, looks like we've acquired a bunch of new debt with more bonds being passed.
I know Eric and Heraldo will be sleeping easier with Prop 90 failing. I figured it would, despite polls saying otherwise. I ended up voting for Prop 90, if for no other reason that, with so many organizations saying the end of the world as we know it would occur if it passed, it must be worth voting for.
No biggie, since I almost chose not to vote either way in that one.
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Oh, and I agree with the Times- Standard editorial regarding the Marina Center people hanging out at the precincts. What were they thinking? I'm sure the accusations of hostility are overblown. Regardless, they should have at least been a little more incognito and not worn the Marina Center shirts while taking care of business.
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So, it's over. We'll still be hearing some more about all this as the recounts continue, I would think. After that, what will we talk about?
Oh, and for those of you that don't visit the other blogs all that often; Our very own, Richard Marks, says he'll be running for State Assembly in 2008. That ought to be fun to watch.
Good luck, Rich, but how you think you're going to beat Wes Chesbro in the primary when the local Democrat machine wouldn't even support you against two Republicans in the Board of Supervisors race is beyond me.
Godspeed. You've got your work cut out for you.
posted by Fred Mangels @ 8:26 AM
94 comments
94 Comments:
Yup, Natural Law Party is officially a dead duck in California. With the way David Cobb is dragging us down, the Greens are probably next.
Growing up-I was taught to believe none of what you hear and believe only half of what you read!
From the Buhne Tribune:
"Because of the number of outstanding absentee ballots, Humboldt County Recorder and Registrar of Voters Carolyn Crnich had reported that the 4th District race was too close to call and could be as late as Thanksgiving before the final results were counted. And with 17 percent of the approximately 12,000 absentee ballots counted as of midnight, Flemming had a more than 55.26 percent lead over Neely’s 44.69 percent."
~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~
Don't look back, Bonnie: If the absentee ballots continue to trend conservative by such a wide margin, you're toast!
I love toast!
Yes but this will be burnt toast ! With stale bread!
Fred:
You should see the humco breakdown.
83 re: sex offenders passed here.
84 the clean water failed here. (but passed in the state.
90 passed here. (but failed in the state.
the spread between neely and flemming is currently 132 votes with 4000 or so absentee left to count.
doesn't look good for bonnie
10:00 Lets don't be BAD WINNERS please!
Election Division says no updates until all provisional and absentee ballots are counted which will takes weeks. The problem with absentee ballots turned in at the last minute is Elec. Div. has to check all signatures which takes a lot of time.
I used to like toast, but would rather not have stale bread.
This absentee ballot BS has got to stop. WHy should a bunch of people too lazy to walk to the polling place gum up the works for the rest of us. I want my final election results now, not at Turkey Time!!!!
Actually, there are a total of 4000 mailed in absentee ballots of which only 17% have been tallied. This leaves 83% of the mailed in absentee ballots to be tallied. No one knows from what parts of the county or city they come from.
There are another 14,000 absentee ballots out there that were not mailed in. Elections reports that there was an UNPRECEDENTED number of absentee ballots walked in yesterday but the number has not been counted at all so none of course could be tallied at all.
If I were a candidate for supervisor or councilmember I sure as hek wouldn't have claimed a victory last night.
And what is with the times standard calling it....Boy, that sure seems ballsy! (or lazy!)
Agreed. I wouldn't call some of those races when they're so close. In fact, I wish the media, as a whole, would quit calling races before all the votes are counted.
Enough of this halfway through election night declaring winners. Wait until all the votes are counted, even if takes a week or two.
Of course, it doesn't really affect me too much as I generally don't watch election night coverage. If there's going to be bad news, and as a Libertarian there's always a fair share of it in elections, I'd rather get it just once than watch it happening little by little.
Its actually kind of nice to make some of the people happy election night even if you have to take it away later...spreads out the happiness somehow. Hang in there and don't give up candidates!
I didn't see anybody that jazzed at the election parties-they ALL looked pertrified!
...Since hubby and I are in different parties we hit them all.
Buhne and the ER and Anon 11:10 have the 17 percent figure wrong. Here, I'm going to cross-post my comment on Eric's site.
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That "17%" means 17 percent of the registered voters. In other words, 13,544 absentee votes were counted by the time the polls closed out of 77,903 registered voters in Humboldt County.
There's at least 4,000 absentee votes uncounted -- probably more like 8,000. Countywide.
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Isn't there anything to do in Nebraska?
Don't know and don't care. just so long as Dickie stays there I'll be happy.
Hey, 10:59 there are a lot of reasons for absentee voting.
One is that if you change registration you regularly don't make it on the roll because the system is screwy. So, you have to cast a provisional ballot, ie: absentee.
What is with the absentee voters you ask? I voted absentee in HumCo because I am not in town but will be again in summer. Still, I'm now a permanent absentee voter. I happen to be one that gets my ballot in on time though.
Try getting out of your 4 block radius once in awhile! If you haven't seen some of these places people are asked to vote, then let me tell you, there's a real problem out here that keeps people voting absentee - some of these places are in bad neighborhoods or sketchy venues.
After so many questions of vote fraud and tallies in polling places being thrown away, there is a backlash and people want to at least believe their vote will be counted. If you get it in early, it will be.
Just because someone does it different than you doesn't make them lazy, stupid, or on the opposite side of the political fence! There are many reasons for absentee voting and here's an interesting article on this in California:
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/opinion/15721591.htm
Bonnie Neely isn't actually Dewey up against Truman BUT...
With 17% (of whatever number counted vs how many total) absentees and 55% going to Flemming already...
That little lead she 'had' will be wiped out.
Its going to be Flemming 55% overall, Neely 45%.
But the INTERESTING tally--will be the voters in Eureka. Will they as I predict, come in 70% for Flemming? We'll see!
That's a mandate Nancy-those letters asking for representation for the 4th District might have won the election for you!
I've heard that in elections past pretty much everybody outside of the townships in SoHum have to vote absentee. They don't have handicapped friendly polling places or something. Anyway, not everybody has a choice.
Hank then tell me please.
If at 8 pm last night how many absentee mail in's were with the elections dept.
How many of those were actually counted?
How many did they bring in from the precincts after the polls closed at 8 pm?
when will they be counted?
Guess the dream team's not all its cracked up to be. It really makes me wonder how Bohn lost to Kerrigan in a 60-40 split. How did that happen, and why is there such a diffrence only two years later?? Glass had the widest margin, but it was nowhere near Kerrigans.
Any Ideas???
But the INTERESTING tally--will be the voters in Eureka. Will they as I predict, come in 70% for Flemming? We'll see!
You've already seen, and the answer is no. And there's simply not enough uncounted votes out there to move the race to a 55-45 win for Flemming. Flemming could win, but that's just kooky.
Let's say that there was a 60 percent turnout in the Fourth District. That would mean that 7,686 people voted, and that 1,389 votes in the district are still uncounted. Flemming needs 761 of those votes to win by 50%+1-- in other words, 54.7 percent of the remaining absentees. That's just under what she received from the absentees received on election night. So by this logic, she's looking good.
There's two variables, though -- actual Fourth District turnout and the composition of these late absentee voters.
Is the hypothetical 60 percent turnout high or low? I don't know. The higher the turnout, the better for Flemming, theoretically.
The bigger question: Are these late absentees really from the same demographic as the early absentees? Somehow I doubt it. The early absentees, I would guess, are the traditional absentees voters -- conservatives, oldsters. But absentee voting has been booming lately, and my gut tells me that these last-minute, turn-em-in-at-the-polling-station absentee voters won't skew as far right as the traditional absentees.
We'll see, won't we?
Absentee voting is more than just booming "lately" and your gut may tell you a thing or two Hank, but anyone reading up on this issue in California has stats to back it up. No need to mystify something and make it sexy, it's just factual.
Absentee Voters are far and away NOT the absentee voters of yore. 40 - 47% of voters are absentee in the state of California as of last count in June. A raise in these numbers from 200k in Y2k to well over 2 million in 2004 was the last stable count but it's definitely on the rise.
The absentee votes are almost an even split between dem and republican - as usual, they leave out any other party when discussing the stats. Still, it's not a gut feeling that the absentee voters have changed, it's something that's been statistically proven.
Yeah, but Hank, no one knows how many absentee ballots were collected on Tuesday at the polls. I have been told that that count hasn't occurred at all and that only the number of mailed in absentees have been counted.
Doesn't Crnich or McWilliams know and why hasn't the press got this to the public.
No need to mystify something and make it sexy, it's just factual.
It's just my natural inclination to make things sexy.
Doesn't Crnich or McWilliams know and why hasn't the press got this to the public.
Hold yer goddamn horses, 2:39! I've got a call in!
Hank's too sexy for a blog, too sexy for a blog too sexy....
Actually, the 4th district includes less voters than the city of Eureka itself.
Guess the dream team's not all its cracked up to be. It really makes me wonder how Bohn lost to Kerrigan in a 60-40 split. How did that happen, and why is there such a diffrence only two years later?? Glass had the widest margin, but it was nowhere near Kerrigans.
Any Ideas???
Kerrigan vs. Bohn came during the Kerry election and had a higher turnout. And it was fresh on the heels of a mysterious out-of-the-blue turnaround by the other members of the city council to kill the plan. Voters have short memories, but not that short.
Well, one things for sure. The ugly slate won the city council!
As of lunch time, there were five mail totes of precinct turned in absentee / provisional ballots. That is from throughout the entire county. Just taking the number of absentee voter requests and comparing it with the already counted votes, means there are only a few hundred left for Nancy and Bonnie to fight over, definitely less than a thousand.
Fred:
The Virginia Bass for Mayor campaign started taking down all it's signs first thing this morning. If we missed any, please let me know.
Jim Ferguson
Campaign Chairman
616-0832
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Hey sports fans -- I've got some hard numbers, but the last bit of those numbers won't be in until tomorrow. I'll post then.
I don't like sports.
Hank, you are such a tease. Out with it big boy.
So will the absentee calvary deliver?
What happened to Thanksgiving?
Cavalry, not calvary.
Eric writes, "So will the absentee calvary deliver?".
What would you like them to deliver, Eric? No way to tell how it will go now, but, seems to me, a mixed slate might be a good thing.
Hank's right....
The Eka absentees will be minimal....but should track to the incumbents, except Bonnie. Ten point spreads for all in the absentees that have been counted so far.
There is an emerging absentee dynamic....from early to late. But the known margin is far too narrow to inspire Bonnie to buy a new house based on future income.
Sexy notwithstanding.
What about the broader issues though...what about the performance of the machine? Is the takeover effort a bust? And Kerrigan's manifesto?
Hank?
1:48, Kerrigan was a popular, up and coming candidate. He hadn't done anything wrong until he got scared and hooked up with Salzman, believing he needed him to win.
Enter dirty campaigning, with Salzman's forces fresh off a perceived win, hating Calpine, and eating up the idea that Rex Bohn represented "Big Oil."
It seems the City of Eureka voters didn't fall for the notion that Home Depot was the big bad wolf.
This time, Salzman's big money from Bill Pierson and Southern Humboldt "benefactors" didn't carry the day.
But Kerrigan's name will now forever be associated with dirty campaigning and smear tactics. Didn't need to be that way, but it is.
Just my opinion.
6:03, you're an interesting cat. You're the same guy/gal that was posting that smart stuff on Richard Marks' blog right before the election, aren't you? I wish you'd show your face. It really would make everything much more fun. Plus, then I could beg you to write for the Journal once in a while
Kerrigan's manifesto? I'm not sure what you're referring to, there.
If you're calling the Salzman/Local Soutions/Dem. Cent. Committee crowd "the machine," I'd have to say that the machine needs a bit of a tune-up. (And Eric, spill with your inside-baseball stuff, already! It's not nice to keep secrets.)
It did deliver Glass and probably Neely, which were probably the races most important to Salzman personally. But La Vallee must have been pretty important to him, too, and that's a stinging loss.
Kuhnel would have been important only to the extent that he would have been a fairly reliable vote -- the swing vote that would usually fall their way. He's too smart and too independent to deliver hype on demand, though, and he may well have voted Arkley more often than they would have liked.
I would imagine that people in the know gave up on Abrams a while ago, leaving only saps like mresquan to walk the streets in the rain for a lost cause. (Sorry, Mark!)
Kerrigan had no business making the City Council the first time. He was a college student (has he graduated yet?). No life experience nothing, other than his grandfather or uncle was a justice of the peace or judge. Kerrigan himself was nothing. That's what he is today. It was "cute" when he was voted in but let's get real does he have a real job? A profession ? Bonni pays him for being a "political consultant" ? What an interesting proposition that is. Now he votes on important issues !!! And as pointed out he has sold his soul to Salzman and will forever be tainted with that.
No matter what it looks like the "dream team" will make a sweep of it.
From Hank @ 6:53
"6:03, you're an interesting cat. You're the same guy/gal that was posting that smart stuff on Richard Marks' blog right before the election, aren't you? I wish you'd show your face. It really would make everything much more fun. Plus, then I could beg you to write for the Journal once in a while"
I'm flattered as I admire your work...but, my only (and first post on Richard's blog) had to do with, presumptions of guilt or innocence depending on ones gut-ethic current. Is that the one you refer to? (er...to which you refer?)
Don't want to get too heady.
I'll give myself up pretty soon.
If you want to buy the coffee, we can discuss the Journal contribution. Been there before don't you know?
Post script to Hank...and Rose too I guess
The Kerrigan manifesto pertains to his rather arrogant demand that the voters bring him three new clones. Sadly, they only delivered one.
Pretty hubrisistic (???) if I may create a new strange word. It does roll off the tongue don't you think?
Hmmmmm....hubrisistic fibrosis? Now that's an interesting proposition.
(And Eric, spill with your inside-baseball stuff, already! It's not nice to keep secrets.)
Trust me Hank, the "trade secrets" sound much more interesting as secrets. It's like that defense expert said for the Rosenbergs, namely that there was no "recipe" for the bomb, it was an industry. There were a thousand problems and a thousand ways to address each problem.
Salzman has developed some clever GOTV techniques, and they're effective. But they aren't magic or anything. They're mostly the product of a lot of time and hard work. Salzman and the others just don't want the other side learning too much too easily, although they could probably figure it out on their own. It has more to do with will, support, and what you choose to emphasize in a campaign.
And a promise is a promise. An Eliphant's faithful, one hundred percent.
Hmmm. Sounds like maybe Richard would have been better off borrowing Virginia Bass's secret sauce this time 'round, though. I don't think she has much use for his mojo.
But I was talking about your dissolution-of-Local-Solutions stuff.
And you, 8:22 ... you going to make me play 20 Questions?
I would imagine that people in the know gave up on Abrams a while ago, leaving only saps like mresquan to walk the streets in the rain for a lost cause. (Sorry, Mark!)
Thanks Hank,I love you too.
I love you too, Mark. I just wish you'd remember -- space after comma.
Hey Fred: Can I reserve a space on your lawn for 2008? C'mon!
Oh, that. Well, I didn't hear much. Only that there were some "ugly" internal politics. That Twombly was forced out. That Salzman is no longer working with them. And that they're basically a non-entity now in the opinion of the speaker. Of course, I didn't have any LS folk around to get their side of the story. It just triggered yet another flashback of the old movie The Life of Brian.
Sorry Hank, but I was more interested in the fact that certain people weren't around than getting the details. I didn't get the feeling that it was a secret or anything.
Bass' "secret sauce" is money for lots of ads. Salzman's strategy was based on a sort of asymetric warfare, where you hope the grassroots can overwhelm the money. Didn't happen this time. Not entirely anyway.
And you, 8:22 ... you going to make me play 20 Questions?
Sure....19 left
Loco a non-entity? Then why are they still vaccuuming money out of the local activist community? You know, like Demockery Uncorporated and like the county Green Party, the same Cobb drones like Kaitlin and Nicole running the show for all three. No wonder none of them had any capable campaign organizing going on this fall. Unfortunately they do matter to the extent they divert, divide and dillute progressives.
Salzman's secrets? First of all he plays politics like three-dimensional chess, so while you think it's only on one level and - oh, gee, he isn't even doing anything underhanded - on the other levels he is a busy boy - only, he began to get caught at it - with the letters, the bumper-stickers, and the little anti-Arkley stickers on the parking meters. He lost his media connections (except the TS and KMUD), and Eric doesn't understand the money he has access to.
But - Bonnie would have won without him. The closeness of the race, in my opinion, reflects the Salzman backlash. She may still win, but she made a mistake.
And the phonebanking secrets aren't that hard to figure out - they call often and early - if you indicate support, you're tagged, if you scream epithets (indicate you're not a supporter, you are crossed off the list. They build a list of likely supporters, tagged for repeated calls. Then, on election night, they just use the basic democratic game plan.
That's the short version. There's alot more to it. And again, that's just my opinion. But I think people are tired of being asked to give Salzman money.
Rose... Rose... Rose... Who do you think has money for calling voters over and over again? You're filled with conspiracy theories.
First, it's unions that make one initial call. If you indicate support, hey, great. At most you get called once more, by a volunteer this time, on election day just to encourage you to vote.
Once Dickie Bravo comes to Eureka Kaitlin and Nicole will give in to his carnal charms and then Cobb will be left all alone with his crappy pancake breakfasts.
"On the downside, looks like we've acquired a bunch of new debt with more bonds being passed."
UGH. Once again I'm filled with disgust with my fellow Californians. Modern people are just rabble through and through, voting with their basest emotions instead of common sense and wisdom. :(
WHY DOES CALIFORNIA VOTE UNWISELY ON NEARLY EVERYTHING!?!
anon 553 - Think Indiana. Or Utah.
It takes money to call people? In a local race? With volunteers placing the calls, 1:46? Well, well, well...
Nice try.
Maybe it's the SoHum long distance charges.
Anonymous said...
Guess the dream team's not all its cracked up to be. It really makes me wonder how Bohn lost to Kerrigan in a 60-40 split. How did that happen, and why is there such a diffrence only two years later?? Glass had the widest margin, but it was nowhere near Kerrigans.
Any Ideas???
1:48 PM
HERE are some ideas.
1) Rex Bohn was strongly in favor of building the Cal-Pine LNG plant. Most Eurekans rightfully feared what an accident at a nearby LNG plant could do to Eureka. You know, in terms of incinerating the town.
Of course, to the pro-LNG people, that would have been just a cost of doing business.
2) Bohn has worked full-time for over 20 years (with other like-minded gasoline distributors) fleecing the rest of the people around here. Every time you gas up your car and wonder why Eureka has had the highest prices in the nation consistently month after month for over 23 years, remember Rex Bohn. He says it is not a conspiracy against the common good, just market forces at work. He never acknowledges the Thumbs on the Scale.
Those two factors explain the margin of Mr. Bohn's loss to Mr. Kerrigan. Contrary to the belief of the shearing class around here, the sheep do have a pretty good idea who is doing the fleecing.
10:07 EXACTLY!
Oh horse shit -
The fact of the matter is that prices are higher up here because there is NO competition. Just like how Pierson's can charge 600$ for a faucet you can get at home depot for 90$.
Get over it an allow competition if you want to see things go down.
Now....back to the election -
77903 was the total of registered voters
Cards Cast 41708 (53.54%) was the total voter turnout at the polls and the absentee ballots actually tallied as of 8 pm on election day (doesn’t take into consideration absentee ballots not tallied by 8 pm or received on election day either through the mail or at the polls
As for the absentees of the 77903 registered voters - 13544 (17.39%)was the Absentee ballots counted by 8 pm (doesn’t take into consideration absentee ballots not tallied by 8 pm or received on election day either through the mail or at the poll.
There are approx 14 thousand more ballots that were sent out - the unknown now is how many are left to be counted, tallied and what proportion of those are attributed to the 5th district race and the City of Eureka. Those won’t be known until the final tally is completed.
Eric you're such an idiot. Salzman didn't think of any of those GOTV ideas. They're using stardard methods, taught by the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, labor unions.
Nice that you have stars in your eyes and all but Richard doesn't know anything special.
And your ignorant view that he wants to use grassroots power over big money is what he wants you to think.
RECALL:
Maxxam ($300,000)
Richard ($250,000)
Kerrigan ($17,000)
Bohn ($20,000)
Gallegos vs. Dikeman, I dont remember but Paul raised and spent way more than Dikeman.
Neely vs. Flemming, see above.
If Richard had his way he would have raised tons more for Peter. But Peter won't ask for $, so he didn't get any. that wasn't Richard's idea.
The idea that Richard makes fire by rubbing sticks together is bullshit. He and Maxxam have brought high-priced campaigns to Humboldt County. No matter what you think of the campaigns he works for, all of us should be pissed at him for that.
There are approx 14 thousand more ballots that were sent out - the unknown now is how many are left to be counted, tallied and what proportion of those are attributed to the 5th district race and the City of Eureka. Those won’t be known until the final tally is completed.
No, actually that should be known today.
"If Richard (Salzman) had his way he would have raised tons more for Peter. But Peter won't ask for $, so he didn't get any. that wasn't Richard's idea."
B.S. -- Ester Saunoras was there with unlimited funds for the slate upon demand.
Unfortunately the vast majority of the Regressives have no money.
Peter can ask for all the money he wants. But the answer is whether the business community would support a Mayor who was against business.
Outside of Bill Pierson, the Eureka business community will support a Mayor who is pro-jobs, housing and development.
That’s not former Mayor LaVallee.
Some Anonymous Poster wrote:
Oh horse shit -
The fact of the matter is that prices are higher up here because there is NO competition....
I REPLY: You are making my point for me. There IS no competition in Eureka.
Wanna know why? Because our local Gasoline Distributorship Cartel kills competition as a matter of long-standing policy.
They keep their profits high by preventing competition from producing lower prices for the consumer.
Government is supposed to enforce its laws against cartels (gangs) that operate "in restraint of trade" but government at every level has failed in its responsibility to the citizens of Eureka, California, U.S.A.
Ironically, this corrupt state of affairs gives the Cartel so much extra money that it can afford to make media buys from time to time to tell the local people how good we have it here and how much the petroleum industry of Humboldt County loves us.
Yep, that's why gas is $2.15-$2.20 today in Sacramento.
The Petroleum Industry must love politicians a bit more.
Rex is still scratching his head about those 1400 votes!
Hank at 11:48 - this time you are wrong...they will have the number of absentees today but you will not have the tally which breaks them down into districts until the vote is in and counted.
1:01 - horsehit again...like which comes first, the chicken or the egg.
Until there is real competition, there will be high prices....why not stop saying NO to growth and get a grip and EVERYONE (including Pierson's!) who is overcharging us up here.
11:27, you left out the money Richard raised and spent as the so-called "Alliance for Ethical Business." You are only counting the legitimate, on the surface money. You left out the money spent by "Humboldt Watershed Council."
How much? We'll never know. Where did it come from? We'll never know. How was it spent? We'll never know.
So much for campaign finance reform from the poster boys for Measure T.
It looks like people locally at least are tired of Richard's hands in their pockets.
1:44 -- Whoops. I guess you're right. I thought I was told otherwise.
Are you kidding!? They LOVE Richard's hands in their pockets. Who can they blame without a Richard??
Eric you're such an idiot. Salzman didn't think of any of those GOTV ideas. They're using stardard methods, taught by the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, labor unions.
I've participated in many of them over the past 25 years. I've seen a few innovations over the last few campaigns. Like I said, there's nothing earthshaking It's just particularly well organized. It's not a big deal in my mind, but I promised so I'm not going to provide any details.
Cross-posted from Eric's new post on absentee ballots, in case anyone in this thread still cares ...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I've got three sets of numbers -- 1) the number of uncounted 4th District absentees in the elections office by 8 p.m. Tuesday, 2) the total number of absentee ballots handed in at polling stations, countywide and 3) the total number of provisional ballots cast.
1). There were 843 uncounted Fourth District absentee ballots in the office at the close of polls. This includes ballots received in the mail on Tuesday, ballots handed in directly to the elections office (on Harris St.) on Tuesday and some ballots with "issues" -- crumpled, sullied or otherwise unable to feed through the machine.
2). There were 2,937 absentee ballots turned in at polling stations throughout the county. They don't have a breakdown of those by district, apparently.
3). There were 688 provision ballots cast countywide.
So: You've got a hard 843 Fourth District absentee ballots not included in the current totals. In addition, you've got maybe 600 or more in the polling-station pool. (Maybe more, because the probably more city people than country people would hand in their absentees to poll workers).
So that's coming up on 1,500 outstanding absentees in the Fourth District race. A real chance for Flemming.
Though I do agree with Mark that there's no guarantee at all that the late absentees will track the same as the early absentees. When Kaitlin Sopoci-Belknap ran for water board last year, she actually increased her lead with those late absentee ballots.
wow....this could actually trend the other way...dont leonard and bass actually have smaller leads than neely??
Who knows, 4:55? That's why I say we hold off the vote counts until ALL the votes are counted.
Curious...
No one seems to leap to Richard's defense in the blogs, unlike the letters to the editor. Have R. Trent's handlees decided that he is a liability and thus should just focus on raising all those cash contributions and otherwise remain in the background?
12:22 pm,I was at the elections department today,you may be in for a surprise.
Ummm. Mresquan? Are you going to elaborate on that?
Eric,the trend of absentee voting being more conservative is changing.Late absentee voters could lean more to the left,lefties procastinate more.4:13 pm's last paragraph isn't far off.
8:19 - mresquan said... "I was at the elections department today,you may be in for a surprise."
We were all at elections today and you are so full of shit.
mresquan 8:19 said... "I was at the elections department today, you may be in for a surprise."
Look at Friday, November 10th Times Standard, page A10 (back page of front section), do you see who is hand counting the votes?
None other than Mark Konkler, AKA: the blogs own "mresquan".
Now if that ain't having the fox count the number of chickens in the coop, I don't know what is.
Is this Mark Konkler's day job (Humboldt County Elections Office) or am I still asleep and having a bad dream?
6:45am since you know so much about what I was doing there,tell everyone here what ballot type and precinct I was helping count.
Mark - I'm cautiously encouraged having checked out the late absentee trends of the 2004 election of Kerrigan and Sopoci-Belknap. But there are a lot of ballots, and the papers can't seem to agree on how many, and nobody's saying anything about when they came in except for the 2900 that came in on election day.
10:01 AM - mresquan said...
6:45am "since you know so much about what I was doing there,tell everyone here what ballot type and precinct I was helping count."
Gee Mark, since none of us want to jump to conclusions, why don't you tell us what you were up to?
4:16pm,see Carolyn Crnich's post in Fred's first thread on this page. She explains exactly what I was doing.
Fred....please dump 3:54. Cripes...now they're spamming the blogs.
Eric said:
Bass' "secret sauce" is money for lots of ads. Salzman's strategy was based on a sort of asymetric warfare, where you hope the grassroots can overwhelm the money. Didn't happen this time. Not entirely anyway."
Richard couldn’t hope to access the kind of money that the Arkley slate had. He had to emphasize grassroots. We don’t know how much was spent in support of the MC project and that slate of candidates, but it was a lot more than they declared and nobody seems to have written about it yet.
Between the value of the precinct walkers that SN hired to promote the Marina Center project, the HBC poll results, the mailers to all voters promoting the MC, the anonymous glossy mailers reminding MC supporters and registered Republicans to vote, and the night-before the election door hangers to the same voters, there was a lot of money being spent to support that slate which they never had to declare.
Any ideas what that might have cost?
Droz got a lot more votes then "elections" is claiming and the same with Flemming . Well , whad'ya expect when the folks doing the tallying are all over 80 yrs . of age and believe marijuana makes you jump off tall buildings and think it's meth . They lied and gave Droz's votes to Bass or Lavallee .
148 beacuse REX BOHN is a joke everyone knows that...
Anon 11:48 - Technically, they don't have to disclose anything spent promoting the Marina Center so long as they weren't specifically supporting candidates. That it framed the whole campaign is another issue, but probably not covered by any of the campaign finance reform laws. Certainly the same is true of CREG's forum and activities as well.
Now if the SN employees on election day were on the clock while working GOTV, that will probably have to be reported. But I don't think SN has that many employees as I saw about 20 of them overall covering two voting locations (with a total of 5 precincts as the Muni had 4).
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