Monday, May 28, 2012

June 5 Predictions

Matt Owen sent out an e-mail the other day asking bloggers and pundits for primary election predictions. I don't know that I've ever made those predictions here before and don't have any desire to change. I don't even stay up to watch the early results on election night. After all, it's usually just bad news so why rub my nose in it.

I'll make a halfhearted attempt at it today if only because I've got nothing else to do. That, and once I do this I can dump Matt's e-mail from my inbox:

1st District, Board of Supervisors- I feel fairly safe in saying Rex Bohn takes the 1st district seat. Without a runoff? Hard to say, but enough people in the district know him and like him to make that happen. Annette DeModena is the wild card.

Between Bohn and Seidner, I'll give the contest pretty easily to Bohn. DeModena is in third place, from the yard signs and endorsements, but how many votes will she get? Will she get enough to force a runoff?

I'll go out on a limb and call it for Rex Bohn with no runoff.

2nd District, Board of Supes- Too close to call. Haven't been in that district lately so can't judge support from the yard signs. From what I've read in the newspaper and the blogs, support seems pretty even for both Cliff Clendenen and Estelle Fennell.

3rd District, Board of Supes- I haven't been to that district in some time so I have no idea whose winning the yard sign wars, but I feel safe in throwing that one to Mark Lovelace. No way I see Karen Brooks- a Tea Party gal- winning that district. I have no problem with the Tea Party affiliation, but those in the district certainly will.

Aside from that, I can't think of anything Lovelace has done to piss off his constituency.

How close will it be? Lovelace wins it with room to spare. 60% of the vote wouldn't surprise me.

2nd Congressional District- Being an authoritarian state and district, it's no surprise that most of the money and support goes to Jared Huffman. He'll certainly be one winner on June 5. I'll give 2nd place to Republican Dan Roberts.

Roberts has the most support of the Republican candidates, such as it is. With the Republican registration numbers in this district- assuming they vote party line-, he should get most of those votes. With so many other candidates in race diluting the rest of the vote, that should give Roberts enough to place him the a runoff with Huffman.

2nd District, State Assembly- Matt didn't include this race on his list for some reason, but I'll do it, anyway. With 4 candidates in the race, 3 democrats and 1 green, there could be a runoff. It won't surprise me if Chesbro gets enough votes to take it June 5.

I'm guessing the Green Party gal, Pam Elizondo, gets the usual 4 to 5% of the vote given to third parties. The question is how many votes Tom Lynch(?) and my favorite, Firenza Pini, get. I'd like Firenza to get at least 5%. I suspect Lynch will do much better, but probably not enough to get over the district's appetite for incumbents and Chesbro wins June 5. I hope I'm wrong.


At 1:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

O boy! Who gets to spend the money! A lot's at stake.

At 9:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Henchman Of Justice":

1st District, Board of Supervisors-
One's civic popularity versus the ROF

2nd District, Board of Supes-

Political Insiders and the connected most interested in this District

3rd District, Board of Supes-

Anything less than 55% for ML suggests that the District can be "open-minded". "College-Town AFFECT", as always! - HOJ


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