Technology a Job Creator?

The title of the article suggests Reason science correspondent, Ron Bailey, is promoting the old conservative/ libertarian dogma that fears about technology and robotics is overblown. That technological advances create jobs overall. I disagree and suggest his article supports my feelings, at least in large part.

Sure, him and others rightly point out the jobs created in the tech industry...in the past and conceivably the near future. But he also points out jobs that have been lost never to return:

"American coal production has doubled since 1950 while the number of coal miners fell from 483,000 then to 123,000 today. In 1950, about 16 percent of the U.S. labor force was employed in agriculture; that has dropped to below 2 percent today. As late as 1930, nearly 19 million horses and mules were used to plough fields, compared to fewer than 1 million tractors. In 1960, when the U.S. Census stopped collecting data on draft animals, the number had fallen to 3 million animals while the number of tractors had grown to 4.7 million. Meanwhile, farm productivity has tripled."

So, jobs have disappeared, yet he uses the rise in productivity as at least subtle proof that technology is good? We might be comparing apples and oranges here. It's good that productivity has increased. That makes things less expensive and more affordable for everyone, but what about those jobs lost? Sure they can do something else, for now, but for how long?


Then he goes on to write:  "Despite all these jobs and more lost to automation, U.S. employment continued to steadily rise. Why? Because technological progress is a "great job-creating machine,".

Yes, it has created jobs in the short term, but more and more jobs are being taken over by artificial intelligence and robotics. He seems to dismiss artificial intelligence. Robotics, coupled with artificial intelligence, will eventually turn the tide of technology creating more jobs and those in tech jobs will be affected as well.

"... automation has taken over a lot of the routine physical and intellectual tasks that once were done by middle-income workers. This process has resulted in a more polarized economy, where highly skilled workers in such fields as infotech and biotech are richly rewarded while a greater proportion of the workforce toil at relatively lower-paying service jobs. Will this continue? Autor doubts it, because he foresees a rising demand for services, involving non-routine tasks in which workers have a comparative advantage over machines—ones requiring interpersonal interaction, flexibility, adaptability, and problem-solving."

There they admit again that automation has taken over a lot of routine tasks...yet suggest it's a plus that people have more time to get into even more menial jobs. Of all things they even praise increases in the food industry, yet don't acknowledge automation in the fast food industry replacing jobs as I write this. Seems to me they're making a good case against their own argument.

Regardless, I've wrote here before that robotics and artificial intelligence is going to take a lot of jobs in the future. We're already seeing it as the writers admit. I predict this being a very big issue in the years to come. I don't share their enthusiasm that the changes coming will necessarily be a good thing.

 *******

As an aside, I read a week or so ago where some factory in China replaced 95% of its workers with automation. Only three workers left just to make sure everything keeps running smoothly. Wonder where the 95% laid off are going to get jobs? And in another 20 years or so, artificial intelligence might well replace the last 4 or 5% of those workers.

*******

I'm sure some of you want to ask me what I think the future holds in 25 to 50 years when this becomes a real issue and only a relative small group holds jobs that pay anything. Let's say it comes to 20% of all jobs being good paying jobs and the rest are pretty much unemployed. Then it becomes a critical problem. What will happen?

Without putting a lot of thought into it, I see two scenarios: Riots in the streets, perhaps ending in a Final Solution of sorts with wholesale executions of those that aren't deemed worthy of having around- pretty much those without jobs or any realistic chance of getting them. Hey, if they can't pay their own way, why have them around?

More likely, though, would be a continuation and extension of the way things are now: A massive welfare state. It's probably unlikely we'll have mass executions. It's also certain that those 25% working the good jobs need someone to sell their products to. I'd suggest governments will just print money and give each person a certain amount, enough to buy a few things to keep those 25% getting paid- and some returned in taxes, of course. A scene many on The Left here would probably welcome, and probably the best of the two scenarios.

Automation: Mid- Level Workers Most Threatened?

Over at The Daily Sheeple, a writer shares my view of artificial intelligence and automation taking over more and more jobs. He differs a bit in believing lower level jobs might actually be safer from from automation than mid and higher level jobs. His reasoning seeming to be lower level jobs are more affordable to employers.

He doesn't seem to consider pressures on low level (minimum wage) jobs now. In this country the so called "living wage" being one that might make those jobs less affordable (at least in the short run). We're already seeing automation developed to replace those workers. Also, when you consider employers are more and more being forced to essentially adopt workers- providing health care and whatever else- when they're hired, it makes a live employee much less desirable.

Perhaps I'm nitpicking. He and I both agree the future holds some interesting challenges to most people's jobs.

In Defense of Robots?

I found a couple articles by guys who think the increase in robot applications is a good thing. This guy in Forbes magazine claims robots will be the biggest job creators ever. This fellow in Reason magazine...well, I'm not sure I got his point, but he does think robots improve the human condition and will continue to.

I think they're both full of crap. That's not to say robots (along with artificial intelligence) haven't improved things in many ways and will continue to. I still say robotics will continue to be a large and growing threat to human jobs.

The guy from Forbes says they'll create jobs we haven't even imagined yet. How? Sure, even 60 years ago we didn't imagine the computer and cell phone industries creating the number of jobs they have, but that can only go so far. More and more of those jobs are becoming automated, or face the possibility of automation. The same could be said of just about any other job- all threatened with automation, eventually.

The Forbes guy is falling back on the past to predict the future. I think he's wrong. I'll go so far as to say the only new jobs (the ones he writes that we haven't yet imagined) in the next 100 years will be jobs that were created simply because a robot could do them.

Robots vs. Minimum Wage

Yet another commentary about the threat of automation taking over human jobs and that minimum wage increases will speed up that takeover. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that the writer, a libertarian, suggests the best way to deal with the advent of robotics is to get onboard:

"There is a way that Puerto Rico can benefit from this paradigm shift. Education officials could make robotics a core class beginning in grade school. It should be continued throughout high school and be required for graduation. Understanding how robots work and are programmed and maintained will give Puerto Rican school children and young adults a leg up in the new robotic world order."

I guess that makes sense in the short term. What else can you do? The problem as I see it is that automation, combined with artificial intelligence, is going to eventually take those jobs, too.

When Robots Attack

I've written here before of my concerns about automation and artificial intelligence eventually taking over most jobs done by people. The Huffington Post has an article showing I'm not alone in my concerns.

"Soon, all that will be left for human beings will be the non-routine, creative work."

Wendy's Top of Automation Race

The Free Thought Project declares the Wendy's restaurant chain the leader in the move towards automating the fast food business. This to stay profitable yet inexpensive with increasing minimum wage or living wage mandates. 

You read about it here first, folks. This will be a continuing big issue as time goes on with robotics and artificial intelligence taking over more and more jobs.

Wendy's Reacts To Minimum Wage Increase

The San Francisco Chronicle reports the Wendy's restaurant chain will be installing self- service kiosks in all of its 6000 restaurants, this at least in part a result of minimum wage increases in California and New York:

"Company president Todd Penegor said that Wendy's is "wary about wage hikes," as Investor's Business Daily writes. The chain restaurant's shares posted a nine percent drop after poor second quarter sales."

Whether this eliminates current jobs, it certainly eliminates future ones, putting those only capable of minimum wage jobs at a further disadvantage. Hate to say I told you so.

Actually, no I don't, but we'll be seeing more of this sort of thing. It will be interesting to see which chain does this next. Replacing human work with automation is inevitable with, or without, increases in minimum wages. Increases in minimum wage just helps speed it along.

Addendum: Investor's Business Daily also covers the story.

Our Unemployed Future

I actually agree- at least in part- with left wing economist Paul Krugman for a change. One of his commentaries is featured in the Santa Rosa Press- Democrat this morning. He writes about what happens when good jobs disappear and how nowadays it's just as likely that higher educated workers will lose their jobs as the less educated.

He brings up the subject of technology vs. jobs:

 "The McKinsey Global Institute recently released a report on a dozen major new technologies that it considers likely to be “disruptive.” Even a quick scan of the report's list suggests that some of the victims of disruption will be workers who are currently considered highly skilled, and who invested a lot of time and money in acquiring those skills. For example, the report suggests that we're going to be seeing a lot of “automation of knowledge work,” with software doing things that used to require college graduates. Advanced robotics could further diminish employment in manufacturing, but it could also replace some medical professionals."

I think robotics and technology is going to have a devastating effect on employment and even sooner than many expect. Maybe not so much in my lifetime, but surely in 20 or 30 years I foresee major problems as robots start manufacturing robots and technology takes over more and more human job functions.

I'm sure there might be some menial jobs that might be safe but even ones that come to mind will likely be hit hard by science and technology. Lawn guys, for instance; We already have automated lawn mowing machines that mow lawns non- stop using solar power. Eventually, one guy could have a few smart mowers that could have him doing the work of five conventional lawn guys.

And eventually someone will develop a computer that controls the smart mowers to mow lawns without any human input.

Never mind hybridizing and gene splicing that will develop lawns that need minimal, if any, mowing. There will be few jobs that are safe as we'll see artificial intelligence doing the bulk of the work in even developing technology.

Eventually, most will be out of work with no alternatives. Krugman's socialist dream won't likely be the utopia he sees it, but it may be the only alternative in a world where few real jobs for people exist. How else would we survive?

Automation Taking Over

I had no idea we already had self order restaurants. This economist reports on going to a Hardee's where you get a 10% discount for ordering your meal through a terminal- basically typing in your own order instead of a worker at the counter doing it for you.

I wish the writer had expanded on his observations, but he envisions a future much as I do:

"...over the coming decade, I think we are going to see a growing mass of unemployed and unemployable young people, who quite literally lack the skills to support themselves. If and when the economy crashes again, and especially if the federal government can’t or won’t continue with traditional welfare programs, things are going to get really ugly."

The taking over of jobs by technology and artificial intelligence seems to be happening faster than I'd expected. As I've written here previously, I see this causing a lot of conflict in the years ahead. As time goes on, it's not only going to involve young people.

Job Replacement By Robot Calculator

The Daily Sheeple web site seems interesting so I'm bookmarking it. It has this article that looks at aspects of human jobs being taken over by robotics and artificial intelligence. Even a test that tells you the supposed chances of your job being taken over by robotics. I say supposed because their estimates seem low to me.

I took the test. Unless I missed it, I didn't find anything along the lines of landscape maintenance. The closest I could find was "Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance". That seems close but for actual jobs the closest was "Janitor or Custodian" (is there a difference?). The test showed the job had a 66.3% chance of being replaced by automation. 

I think the odds are higher than that. Maybe not in my lifetime, but eventually.

Dealing with Rising Minimum Wages

The California Political Review looks at business' attempts at dealing with recen't minimum wage increases. Will automation step in to replace those workers? It's already happening in some situations. That will likely continue, with or without minimum wage increases.

More Robots Taking Jobs?

Fox News has a short video about Lowe's exploring the use of robots to help you shop. I found the comments more interesting. Not many there, but I enjoyed reading of others' minimum wage work histories. 

I put my story there in response to one guy's comment asking for examples of how some have turned their minimum wage job into a stepping stone to a higher paying job. Any of you want to share your story?

~~~~~~~

Speaking of automation, I used the self- check out at Winco again for the second time yesterday. I would have used the regular checkout but only had a few items and all the lines were full of stuffed shopping carts. 

It didn't work well this time. I got into some conflict with the machine over how I set my scanned items in the bagging area. I was half way through the process when I got stuck. Embarrassing, since all six machines were being used so there was a gal behind me patiently waiting for me to finish. I finally had to call the attendant over and have her help me get it all sorted out. I'm still not sure what I did wrong.

The Future of Fast Food?

I've wrote before of my concerns over automation replacing human jobs so I wasn't surprised to read about this robot that can make a hamburger in 10 seconds. So much for worrying about minimum wage increases for fast food workers once they become commonplace. Ironically, those same wage increases might well increase the use of robots.

Artificial Intellingence: The Future Threat?

A few months ago I wrote a short piece on artificial intelligence and automation. My focus being that as those took on more and more roles in our lives, and became more independent, we'll face a real crisis in employment.

The American Prospect has a short interview with the author of a book on robotics and artificial intelligence discussing a slightly different aspect to technology: when we develop intelligence smarter than we are, might it be a threat not just to jobs but perhaps our lives? 

As the writer points out, how do we treat creatures a bit less intelligent than we are? We put them in zoos.

Another fun read brought to my attention by the Rational Review News Digest.

The Freddy Does Self Check- Out

I told myself I wouldn't do this, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Aw, heck. I suppose I'd have to try something new for the first time, regardless, so long as it didn't cost any extra money.

I was in Winco today. My back really hurt and the lines were long. I'd forgotten it was the first weekend of the month and was hatin' it. I got in line behind a lady with probably a quarter of the store in her shopping cart, put my bag on the floor and settled- or suffered- down to wait for the line to move.

Then I turned my head and noticed at the far end of all the checkout terminals (same side as Customer Service) a big sign saying "Self Check- Out". Whoa! Hadn't seen that before. Did I miss it earlier on? Connie said she thought they had one for some time, but she doesn't shop there. What would she know? I don't recall seeing it a week ago.

I grabbed my stuff and headed over to self check- out. The sign said "around 15 items". I had maybe half that. I've always felt they needed an Express Lane at Winco for folks with just a few things. This fit the bill perfectly, especially considering my back was killing me. 

There were three or four terminals there with only two being used. I watched one lady briefly to get an idea of how it worked, then went over to one of the empty terminals.

First question on the screen was whether I brought my own bag. I answered Yes and I thought it asked me to put in the bagging area so it could confirm the bag. I must have got it wrong because a Winco gal that was monitoring the operation came over, grabbed my bag and put it back where it was to begin with- the right side of the station. She said something about a scale needing to weigh it, but I didn't see a scale there. I'm still not sure where the bag was supposed to go. Whatever.

After that I just grabbed the few things I had and ran their bar codes over the scanner. Then I pressed the button saying I was finished. The screen then had me pick what method I'd be paying by. I chose debit card and it prompted me to use the debit card scanner just as you do when you normally buy stuff. I ran my card, did the PIN thing and was done. 

Would have been out of there a lot faster had I knew what I was doing, but simple enough. Maybe next time? I've told myself I wouldn't be using these self check- outs if only because I'm concerned about automation taking more and more people jobs. Probably not much harm using it for one or two things, though.

Robots= Universal Basic Income?

I haven't written about robotics and artificial intelligence in a while, but I couldn't pass up this article from CBS News about what's going on in Europe. It seems robots are increasingly replacing human workers, especially those in the most menial jobs. What to do when it's more cost effective to hire a robot than pay some bum to sweep a floor? Many in Europe seem to think they should pay the bums to do nothing.

I keep reading bits and pieces about universal basic income with some libertarians seeming to be in favor of it although I never was able to read the arguments in favor. As for me, I wrote here some time ago I wasn't sure there was any alternative of what to do with the unemployed when automation takes over most jobs, short of a final solution type deal where everyone is disposed of with the exception of the handful left with jobs.

I'm not sure I like the idea of it being universal, either, meaning everyone gets paid the same regardless of ability. I don't know I'd have the guts if I was in charge of it but I'd prefer to see people of worth- those who were capable of holding a job- getting paid more than those who aren't capable. Again, not sure if I'd have the guts and I'm pretty sure making those decisions will be part in my future. More likely, I'd be one of those targeted for disposal.

Oh, shame on me. I used the self- checkout at Winco last Sunday.

Thet Minimum Wage Increase

You might have heard there's a minimum wage increase being passed, or almost passed, by the state legislature. The San Francisco Chronicle's, Debra Saunders takes a critical look at it. It might surprise some that I'm not as against minimum wage, or increases of it, as much as it one might expect. I just don't think they do any good and cause problems for non- minimum wage earners in the long run.

That a minimum wage exists in this state (some states don't have them) is water under the bridge. We're likely to have one at least for my lifetime, but I also agree with libertarians that what I make for doing a given amount of work should be between me and who I'm working for, not the rest of you. 

Still, prices rise over time and minimum wage earners do fall through the cracks. After all, it takes a literal act of congress or the state legislature to raise minimum wage while everyone else's pay goes up one way or another over the years. With that in mind, I'm not going to argue whether we should have a minimum wage, although I'll argue it shouldn't be raised too high or too fast. 

I just look at it from what I've seen in my life. What usually happens? The minimum wage goes up, then everyone else's wages go up. Not right away, but over time- unions usually among the first to demand higher wages so they keep their pay levels the same distance above minimum wage. Prices of things also go up over time and, before you know it, minimum wage earners are back to square one, barely able to get by.

There will always be someone at the bottom of the pay scale and nobody that I know of has ever entered the middle class as a result of raising the minimum wage.. The way out of being a minimum wage earner is to get into a job that pays more than minimum wage. That's how I did it. Here's my story:

*******

I got a part time job pumping gas for Ruell Oil Company back around '77ish. Minimum wage maybe 20 to 30 hours a week. I started out at what was then the Texaco Star and Bar at 4th and M Streets in Eureka. I worked for some weeks, maybe a couple months, before the station owner sent me to his Beacon station on myrtle and Mcfarland in Eureka. That station is now a Shell mini- mart if I remember correctly.

I didn't realize it at he time, but I'd kinda been promoted as I was then one of the few full time employees of Ruell Oil Company. Still minimum wage, but 40 hours a week and I took that job to heart, going to the main station after my shift to pick up needed supplies and such.

Back when I was at 4th and M Streets I was put on the night shift once week for maybe 3 weeks. One night a guy came in for gas that turned out to be the late Elwood "Bud" Maloney. He was dressed in a nice uniform with a badge. I was into uniforms at the time, noticed his "Burns Security" shoulder patch so asked him where he worked and how much he was paid. He told me he worked at Humboldt Bay Power Plant and made over $4.00 and hour, well above minimum wage at the time. 

I asked him how I could get on there. He told me to just go in and put in an application. I did exactly that within a day or two.

About a week or so later I got a call from some security guy at the power plant asking if I could come in for an interview. We arranged a date and time. I went in and fumbled my way through the interview.

By that time I was at the Myrtle Avenue station working full time 8am to 4pm. A week or two after the interview I was at home when the guy called me again with a job offer. He said they couldn't put me on full time right away and I'd be a "relief officer", meaning I'd only cover for others when they're sick or otherwise unavailable to work. I jumped at it and started that job soon thereafter, but they allowed me two weeks to notify my current boss.

My last day at Myrtle Avenue Jerry Ruell, the boss, called me and asked to clarify him on my new job, saying that security companies tend to be fly by night outfits and I probably wouldn't have a job there for long. I didn't realize from that part of the discussion he was trying to talk me into staying. Then he said he'd make the manager of the Myrtle Ave. station and put me on salary. I told him I really didn't want to pump gas the rest of my life. He seemed to understand.

I have no idea what his "salary" would have been. I have no doubt it would have been over minimum wage but after I left there I made over minimum wage at Humboldt Bay Power Plant. That was two above minimum wage opportunities coming at me at once.

That's how I did it. Had I stayed on pumping gas and hoping someone would raise the minimum wage, I'd still be relatively poor, or had been replaced by automation as actually happened to many of us gas pumpers, and is likely to affect more and more minimum wage workers, especially with minimum wage increases. I weaseled my way out of that.