Forecasting The Drought
It hadn't occurred to me until I read this short piece from CalWatchdog how the weather agencies got the extended forecasts pretty much wrong.
What
makes the storms even more newsworthy is not only that are they
tapering the drought. They also were not forecasted by climate
scientists, El Nino/La Nina experts, or government weather agencies. -
See more at:
http://calwatchdog.com/2014/12/23/experts-missed-december-ca-drenching/#sthash.KYTfaOh7.dpuf
"What makes the storms even more newsworthy is not only that are they tapering the drought. They also were not forecasted by climate scientists, El Nino/La Nina experts, or government weather agencies"
In fairness, we need to remember they usually forecast in percentages such as 60% chance of such and such happening. Thus it could be argued nobody said it absolutely wouldn't rain.
As the article points out, it wasn't two months ago they were predicting little rain and probably another year extending the drought. Earlier in the summer there were glimmers of hope but as the year went on the forecasts seem to get more and more negative. Then it started raining.
I hadn't really thought about the predictions vs. reality since the rain started. Probably because I was just glad everyone seemed to be getting rain. But now that the writer mentions it, yep, they didn't get it quite right.
Just remember the high rainfall percentages shown in the article are year to date, not for the full rain year, so it isn't over yet.
posted by Fred Mangels @ 10:17 AM
3 comments
3 Comments:
That's the beauty of nature and also of science. They can change direction at a moments notice.
In a world that is becoming increasingly black and white, nuanced things such as science have a hard time surviving. Everyone wants a definite answer. NOW. Look at all of the people who blindly accept a god or a political party and then stop thinking and questioning and instead only promote black or white....
"But now that the writer mentions it, yep, they didn't get it quite right."
If you're really interested in the topic, NOAA's assessments start here. I'd also suggest if you're going to post an 'expert' opinion, start with the experts.
"That's the beauty of nature and also of science. They can change direction at a moments notice."
Too bad I can't figure out how to add upvotes to comments here. If I could, that one would get an uptick or "Like" from me.
Along that same line, I notice now they're saying saturated fats are not so bad for you and carbohydrates the bigger threat to health. Opposite the current conventional wisdom. Wonder what they'll be saying ten years from now?
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